Libertarian Theory of War. 2. Theory of War.
Throughout the book, the idea is constantly emphasized that war is expensive, and a protracted war is catastrophically expensive. If war could not be prevented, it should at least be ended as quickly as possible. In fact, there is no point in discussing the criteria for when one should attempt to exit a war; rather, it is more useful to consider the inverse criteria—how to know when it is still too early to exit.
At any moment of a war, one can determine with more or less certainty whether its goal has been achieved and what the direction of the situation’s development is; this gives us four different cases that should be considered separately.
2.4.1. Goal achieved, situation improving
In the case of a war for resources, you have successfully captured or defended the disputed property. In the case of a war of hatred, you have successfully destroyed the object of your hatred (or the subject hating you). In the case of a war for freedom, you have ensured effective control over your own actions. At the same time, the opponent continues to weaken under your blows, and the situation is clearly developing in your favor. Should you continue the war?
Much is determined by the position of third parties. If your actions continue to be approved by others, there is a great temptation to finish off the enemy and thereby completely close the issue for the foreseeable future. However, it is precisely in such an extremely favorable layout that one should try instead to make the already defeated enemy a future ally. This would require offering unexpectedly honorable terms of surrender and, in case of agreement, immediately taking measures to establish strong ties after the peace is concluded.
Theoretically, there may be existential conflicts in which war is possible only until the complete destruction of one of the parties, but in such a conflict, that is precisely the goal of the war, meaning it does not fall under the category under consideration, as the goal has not yet been achieved.
2.4.2. Goal achieved, situation deteriorating
You miscalculated your strength, managing to achieve the goal of the war through the effect of surprise, luck, or extreme effort, but you realize that you will likely be unable to hold onto what was captured in the near future. It is perfectly obvious that in this situation, immediately concluding peace with the recognition of the status quo would be your best way out. It is also perfectly obvious that this will be a difficult task, as the opponent will have every reason to believe that in the future, the status quo will change in their favor.
In this situation, the most reasonable approach would be to try to offer as peace terms the fixation of the goal you achieved plus generous compensation, the payment of which should preferably be spread over time. And if this works, then as in the previous option, try to make yesterday’s enemy a new ally.
If the opponent does not agree to such terms, you will have to decide: either make partial concessions regarding the goal, or, if it is a matter of principle for you (for example, in the case of a war for freedom), threaten a war of attrition in which both sides are guaranteed to lose.
2.4.3. Goal not achieved, situation improving
At first glance, this is the most obvious scenario, where one should simply continue the war since everything is going so well. However, even here, one can try to save resources. For example, you offer the opponent to cease unnecessary resistance and immediately satisfy your demands, which would ensure the fulfillment of the war’s goal. Again, you could offer the opponent payment using funds that you would have spent anyway while trying to achieve the goal by force.
Of course, if this is a war of hatred, such maneuvers look very strange; in this case, you must either achieve your goal by force or somehow bargain for your opponent’s allies to hand them over for retribution.
2.4.4. Goal not achieved, situation deteriorating
In this case, it seems you made a major mistake, being insufficiently prepared for war. Well, if you can quickly lock in the loss and conclude peace on acceptable terms, you are lucky. If not, you will have to fight a war of attrition until the opponent considers that they have punished you enough, or until they impose completely enslaving peace terms.