For example, if Putinism collapses. Roughly what steps would need to be taken for this to happen?

Muscovite

Let’s imagine, for example, a scenario like this. Putin launches an offensive in Donbas with a simultaneous sea landing in southwestern Ukraine. To do this, among other things, he scrapes together the remains of the ground forces, airborne troops, and naval infantry from the Far East. Meanwhile, due to difficulties exporting Sakhalin oil and gas, employees there start being put on part-time hours, and in some places, are laid off. A small isolated donor region (smaller than Montenegro in population) finds itself in a situation of a sharp drop in the standard of living. Moreover, this is a region where the number and influence of public sector employees are relatively small, while the voice of working people, conversely, is very important.

It is known that the greatest discontent occurs among affluent people whose opportunities have been sharply curtailed. So the breeding ground for protest is ready, and these are people who care very little about some Ukraine; they want to work, earn money, and have Moscow stay out of their way.

What happens next? Next, for example, the governor flies to Moscow once again and doesn’t make it. Well, you know, the aviation fleet requires constant maintenance and supplies of imported spare parts, and those are in short supply in the country. New elections must be organized. And it so happens that on the island there are many people interested in breaking away from Moscow, and at the same time, from the sanctions. Moreover, they are supported by at least the Japanese and American shareholders of the island’s oil and gas projects. A representative of the LDPR (where, after the death of the party’s founder, the power vertical couldn’t be properly repaired) runs for election—an ethnic Ukrainian (there are quite a few of them on the island) and an entrepreneur. Attempts to remove him from the election turn into a storming of the regional election commission by the candidate’s support group, after which the candidate announces that the elections will take place with the participation of international observers. The local Rosgvardia has its garage gates blocked with concrete blocks, and it reports to Moscow that it is busy organizing the unblocking; in the meantime, it releases infantry onto the streets without transport, which reduces its effectiveness to zero, and it simply observes the proceedings.

Over the next few days, Japan sends a large number of extremely polite international observers. The LDPR candidate wins the election, after which the island’s parliament adopts a resolution stating that Sakhalin is beginning a transition process toward voluntary accession to Japan with the right to broad autonomy. It is announced that Sakhalin will stop paying taxes to the Russian federal budget immediately; as for Japan, the issue of taxation is postponed until the final stages of the transition period. All customs restrictions against Japan are unilaterally abolished.

The RF, ready to send an army to bring the island to submission, slows down. Firstly, there is no army, only the Pacific Fleet. In principle, that is enough, but secondly, the Moscow leadership is explained that in its current form, Sakhalin is an ideal offshore zone for bypassing sanctions, and such opportunities should not be thrown away. Therefore, Moscow sends its representative to the committee for organizing the transition process, and there he does his part in prolonging this bureaucratic process.

And after that, everyone likes how it turned out. Taxes are radically reduced, Russian businesses eagerly register where there are no sanctions, and Japanese businesses engage in the development of the island. The RF ensures that the rights of the Russian-speaking population are not violated. Japan ensures that the rights of Japanese settlers are not violated. In the end, thirty years later, when everyone has already forgotten that there was such a Putin and that there was such a Ukrainian war, the transition process continues on the island, because there are no fools to complete it. This is not ancap, but a pretty good approximation of it.

I love fairy tales.