In response to the start of the procedure to declare them an extremist organization, Navalny’s team is calling for a final and decisive “Chinese warning” to the regime. Namely, let’s go to a rally in a huge crowd, like the Belarusians, and then defeat them in elections, like the Belarusians. “If they shot at us with rifles,” the FBK leadership states, “and we bravely pushed forward, then now, when they are unpacking the machine gun, we need to close our ranks even tighter; they can’t shoot everyone.” The main thing is not to become like them and not to unpack the guns ourselves.

Indeed, the judicial system in the RF has a certain terminal velocity for turning free people into colony inhabitants, and in the event that any political activity not coordinated with the regime is officially declared a criminal offense, this very system will have to work for quite some time at maximum capacity — which, however, is easily optimized (google troikas).

Now let’s look at a simple chart. This is the dynamics of the change in the number of prisoners over three Putin terms and one Medvedev term. As you can see, at least 360,000 vacant spots have opened up in Russian prisons and colonies during this time. 440,000 people have already signed up for Navalny’s rally, and an unauthorized mass action is planned for when 500,000 sign up. What is there to say? Indeed, it will be difficult to imprison everyone. Perhaps you will be among those 140,000 lucky ones who won’t fit in the prisons and will therefore receive a suspended sentence. Navalny also started with a suspended sentence.

Unfortunately, I cannot offer any more reasonable alternative than to get out of the country right now. Just imagine that you live, for example, in the USSR, and it is, for example, 1968. And by some incredibly lucky chance, you have the opportunity to physically be outside the country. You can leave, you can stay, but the regime will only collapse in 1991. That is roughly the picture we have today.