Today you have given me a day off again, so I will reflect a bit on the indefinite protest that was announced by the participants of the rallies on September 9 in Moscow, and then in several other cities.
What surprises the protesters most is that all opposition organizations are shyly avoiding it; not only do they fail to join, but they prefer not to mention it at all, and in some places, they even ban mentions of it on their resources. How can this be? I will try to figure it out.
This indefinite protest is not the first, and all previous ones ended ingloriously. There was the Occupy Abay, there was the siege of the Christmas tree ornament in New Year’s Moscow, there was Manezhka in October of last year. Each time, the police dispersed these indefinite actions without much effort as soon as they felt their time had come. Therefore, the leaders of the organized non-systemic opposition, who themselves actively participated in previous actions in their time, are now in no hurry to repeat this disgrace and are discouraging others.
In other words, the general opinion today is that a protest action should be populous rather than prolonged, and space over time does not convert. It would seem that populous actions also do not lead to the government resigning or canceling its unpopular decisions, so on what basis should rallies be more preferable than occupations? I can perhaps name two arguments.
- After rallies, more young blood flows into the organized non-systemic protest than after occupations — simply by virtue of that very populousness.
- Rallies provide a more vivid picture, and therefore garner more views, which again helps them ensure a greater public resonance.
Thus, at the stage of accumulating strength, rallies are a more effective means of maintaining morale and replenishing the ranks, while at the stage immediately preceding the fall of a regime, rallies are certainly insufficient — this stage is precisely accompanied in the modern practice of peaceful revolutions by multi-day protests.
At the same time, one can never know for sure in advance whether the time has come for an occupation, or whether it is more profitable for now to keep a low profile and only occasionally remind people of one’s existence through rallies. For the start of the Maidan, one small, harshly dispersed rally was enough. In Yerevan, the indefinite protest began immediately, without any rallies; it was initially very small but continued to grow until the change of the prime minister. So, it can turn out in different ways.
That is exactly why one should not discourage people from participating in any peaceful protest, even if you are sure that right now, and in exactly this form, it is a complete profanation. What if it turns out that you were wrong, and the time has actually come.
It is far more important to constantly consider for yourself how the existing protest could be supplemented to make it more effective. This supplement does not have to be expressed in joining the action, as one can work on other fronts, as long as the desired result becomes closer.
Well, I will talk about that next time, provided, of course, that you don’t pelt me right now with questions on other topics.
