Prediction markets

Just as I started to be glad that I can now post long-form content directly into Telegram, Sperry released a mega-long post that definitely won’t fit anywhere. I even initially thought about posting it on my own website in chapters rather than on a single page, but in the end, I decided not to overcomplicate things.

The scariest part is that he isn’t joking when he calls this a short essay; I also had the chance to hear several historical anecdotes that didn’t make it into the text, and if he wanted to, it could have been significantly longer. I can’t do that!

So: Prediction Markets. A brief essay on libertarianism, rationalism, ludomania, and mathematics. It turned out to be a very interesting mix. For me personally, the essay is useful primarily because it allows me to distinguish more confidently between the spheres of the predictable—and therefore the plannable—and the unpredictable, i.e., that to which one should merely adapt.

Graeber, Mises, and Evolution

@SperryUNIVAC, whom I infinitely respect for his frantic work ethic and very broad range of interests, besides various commissioned books and military-technical analysis, also runs a small channel (slightly larger than mine) purely for the soul — about coins. I don’t understand much and am not particularly interested in how many ounces of silver were in which thaler, but when he posted a powerful cycle of texts called “What is Money,” I could not help but give it my close attention.

Mainly, the text is a retelling of Graeber’s book “Debt: The First 5,000 Years,” but in some places, the accents are set differently.

Part 1 — in which the author immediately describes the economy as a zero-sum game, but at least acknowledges that not everyone adheres to this ancient belief. Also, the concept of debt appears on the scene as a moral obligation, which is the basis of all economic magic.

Part 2 — in which it is pointed out that the strong can easily impose debt conditions on the weak that have nothing to do with justice. In general, the idea of debt is based on violence. If there is no possibility to forcibly reclaim what was lent, there is no institution of loans. But if this violence is abused, the moral obligation to pay debts weakens.

Part 3 — here the author continues to retell how wretched these debts of yours are, but for the first time disagrees with Graeber and refuses to unequivocally condemn the concept of debt-money itself. He suggests that since the concept of debt led to the emergence of the state, it must have brought some benefit to human communities under its yoke, regardless of how individual people suffered from it.

Part 4 — here the author, following Graeber, mocks Adam Smith and explains that money did not emerge from direct barter, but first took the form of debt receipts for homogeneous goods convenient for storage, such as grain or livestock, while coins made of precious metals appeared much later and were state-issued.

Part 5 — it describes three types of economic relations according to Graeber: communism (within small groups), exchange (for one-off transactions with strangers), and hierarchy (where debt cannot be repaid, leading to dependency). Communists try to prevent hierarchy, but once they increase in number, the transition is almost inevitable. Markets, meanwhile, are created by states so that people sell their goods for a pittance for the sake of paying taxes (this thesis is designed to cause “butthurt” for all supporters of the strict opposition between state and market).

Part 6 — here the author describes how, besides credit-commodity money, symbolic money has also been in circulation since antiquity, used to assess damage to property, life, and honor; the clash of these monetary systems led to the symbolic money system losing. Roughly speaking, life and honor became commodities. The author also persistently calls Irish bards “skalds,” but those are trifles.

Part 7 — describes how the appearance of iron democratized war, mass violence destroyed systems of credit trade, which led to the invention of coins; it is convenient to pay mercenaries with coins, and so that they could spend them, empires required taxes to be paid in coins. The result was the launch of the main engine of all ancient empires: army–slaves–coins. These changes led to revolutions in consciousness, which is why antiquity is now known to us as the time of the birth of almost all great doctrines.

Epilogue — the pace accelerates sharply, and in one post, it covers the entire history from the end of antiquity to the end of cash. Until the next leap in military technology, which led to gunpowder empires, Europe relied again on commodity-credit money, then regained a taste for coins, but soon smoothly transitioned back to credit receipts—first for precious metals, and then to pure fiat, which subsequently rapidly transitioned into cashless form so that the money circulation could, first, keep up with the pace of monetary operations, and second, with the ambitions of states to control the economy. The word “blockchain” was mentioned, but the word “bitcoin” was not, because it does not fit into Graeber’s concepts.


It is foolish to dispute the anthropological material on which Graeber bases his monetary theory. Therefore, it would be far more logical for supporters of the Austrian School of Economics to agree with the erroneousness of Mises’s regression theorem (that today’s demand for money is derived from yesterday’s, and so on back to a commodity with consumer value, which became the first money), especially since the foundation of economic theory does not crumble from this admission. Money has various functions — unit of account, store of value, means of transfer of value, and so on. There is nothing surprising in the fact that at different times, different peoples practiced different ways of implementing these functions. Later, in the course of history, convergence occurred, and now we call various implementations of these functions “money” under one umbrella.

The regression theorem was needed as a justification that the state is unable to create purchasing power for money. Well, let’s discard this doubtful take: it is capable, and very much so. Take a group of ten people, give an eleventh person nine tokens and suggest they distribute them among this ten as they please, while warning them that in a month, whoever among the ten cannot produce a token will be killed. The tokens will have astonishing purchasing power. The distributor of the tokens will receive a huge amount of benefits. And in a month, they will present you with ten tokens, at least one of which will be counterfeit, because people want to live.

It is not so important who created the first money and when. It is not so important who and by what means attempts to endow current money with purchasing power. For a libertarian, the only thing that matters is exactly how people will organize their interaction in the absence of coercion. If they want, they will provide services to each other without a strict fixation of debt. If they want, they will use commodity receipts or tokens backed by a basket of goods. If they want, they will turn to items made of rare materials or to digital rare assets, such as bitcoin. Or they will use different methods for different situations and different counterparties, as has been the case in history.

In conclusion, I will touch upon an important assertion by Sperry that, from the perspective of survival and prosperity of large human associations, the emergence of the state and the improvement of means of state control over the activities of subjects turned out to be very useful. This conviction has a right to exist, however, there are a couple of remarks.

Firstly, after the appearance of Dawkins’ works, the subject of biological evolution is not the species, the population, or the individual — but the gene. Similarly, the subject of cultural evolution is not humanity, not the community, and not the human — but the meme. The fact that memes about the moral obligation to repay debts and the necessity of hierarchies are successfully passed from generation to generation does not necessarily condition the prosperity of human communities in which these memes are widespread.

Secondly, even if we assume that evolution primarily ensures an increase in the adaptability of a population to current conditions, this in no way guarantees that a useful trait that once appeared through evolution will retain its utility in new conditions. Since the appearance of the first states, the conditions of human interaction have changed significantly, and today the existence of a state that controls the daily lives of people and preaches some debt of every subject to it no longer looks so unconditionally useful for the community. With equal success, it can be viewed as a kind of atavism destined to be displaced by other forms of human organization.

Libertarian Theory of War, a review

@SperryUNIVAC

Writing reviews of friends’ books has always been difficult for me, because on one hand there is the demand for objectivity, and on the other—sympathy for the person, which clouds the critic’s vision. Therefore, I usually avoid such a conflict of internal interests, but in this case, I decided to take it on (especially since the theme of war is generally close to me). I decided to do it, but for a long time, I struggled to find the right angle, for although the book is small, it took me quite a while to understand what it is actually about. During the reading process, I periodically felt outraged, then touched, then outraged again, and so on in a circle; things only started to make sense when I finally realized what it reminded me of. That is what I will talk about first.

Once, I read a book of similar size and also self-published called Warlordism 101, dedicated to an instrumental analysis of the warlord concept with various historical examples, from successful ones (Álvaro Obregón, Li Mi) to failures (Baron Ungern, Charles Taylor, Chen Jiongming, and others). One of the goals of its writing was to create a Reader that the Author would be afraid to meet (in his own words)—simply put, it is a small pocket guide on how to become a successful warlord based on historical examples. I haven’t become a warlord yet, but the book, it seems to me, turned out to be quite practical and useful.

The Libertarian Theory of War, however, stunned me upon first reading precisely with its relative uselessness, especially in those sections where the war itself is described. The author’s recommendations take up literally a couple of paragraphs and are formulated in the spirit of “do good, don’t do bad”—meaning, before an attack, one should conduct reconnaissance (specific recommendations on how, with what, etc., are unfortunately not provided); if you go to war, stock up on resources (an important but trivial thought), and so on. In short, from the perspective of the art of war, Sun Tzu is more useful, not to mention Clausewitz.

Mahan, Duhe, Ludendorff, Liddell Hart, Guderian, von Seeckt, Svechin, Mao Zedong, Boyd, Lind, and Warden: for those wishing to partake in the military wisdom of the 20th century (the 21st is still being processed), there is no shortage of non-fiction. Frankly speaking, it would be difficult to expect a modest volume to crack themes comparable to general staff textbooks, but nevertheless, I am used to understanding a book on the theory of war as something slightly different, and therefore I initially treated what was written with great skepticism.

So what, then, are we being offered, if not an exhaustive work on operational art, strategy, and other useful things? While thinking about this (and almost letting the review slide into a typical paragraph-by-paragraph dispute), I had an epiphany. The book, in general, is not about the art of war at all; that is presented in such modest strokes just so that it is there in principle. The author is far more interested in something else: the correlation of wars with libertarian philosophy—that is, reflecting on what goes on (and should go on) in the head of a libertarian who goes to war. Of course, libertarianism as such is not very compatible with classical warfare, where millions march under state flags, but the author immediately makes a pivot and declares war as any confrontation in which one side desperately wants to physically kill the other—permanently, so they don’t get back up. Thus, war immediately moves into the cozy plane of small scales and frantic individualism. One immediately envisions a kind of Wild West, where a farmer with a Winchester shoots back from the attic at a neighbor who decided that the farmer stole his cow. And it is clear that descriptions of what is happening in the heads of both actors in this fun are precisely what interest the author most. He wants to study how deadly conflicts will ignite, proceed, and end in a society of such atomic super-individualist rationalists, sitting on their farms with rifles and killdozers—that is, libertarians.

And here I almost started a paragraph-by-paragraph dispute in the spirit of “that’s not how people’s heads work!!”, but I stopped again because I was finally enlightened. Lem once had a series of sci-fi stories presented as reviews of non-existent books. On one hand, they were so tasty that it was terribly frustrating that the book itself couldn’t be read, but on the other—Lem masterfully opened and closed the topic, describing the plot twists and characters in such a way that there was hardly any need to read the fictional book itself. There is also a genre of in-world books found in various novels or even RPGs, which seriously expound concepts that are terribly important to the inhabitants of that world, but, of course, do not relate to the real world. They are usually composed to make the player’s or reader’s immersion deeper, so they can peek through such a window into the mechanics of relationships and philosophies of the depicted world.

The Libertarian Theory of War reminded me of exactly such a publication: a book arrived from some parallel reality that has no touch with ours, a world of those very farmers with rifles on their own land and without governments (not even large corporations), who need a moral (first and foremost!) guide to action: how to act in accordance with one’s faith if a neighbor stole a sheep, and a private court, misled, for some reason decided that the sheep is his. This is a serious question in a world of atomic rational super-individualists with rifles sitting on their farms: do I have the moral right to go to my neighbor and smash his house, threatening him with a weapon? and what will my neighbors say? and what if he gathers neighbors, lies to them about the sheep, and before I arrive, comes to shake my house? Of course, for us, these things are of about as much practical interest as listing the Sixteen Permitted Heresies, referring to the Daedric Princes in Oblivion, but for the inhabitants of such a hypothetical Libertarian Wild West, all these questions are extremely important.

And here the author can no longer be blamed for stupidity or lack of logic: in his head, as with any good writer, there is a high-quality and internally consistent picture of such a wonderful place, and for its inhabitants, he provides answers to all the above questions. When and how it is permissible for a libertarian to enter a war, why, how to end it, what to do if one has to fight non-libertarians (suddenly a state appears on the horizon, Achtung!) and so on and so forth. Of course, everything is laid out quite concisely, but in an elegant style, and almost all conceivable questions are touched upon briefly (i.e., within a couple of paragraphs), up to potential PTSD and the realization that war changes people. Generally speaking, all thinking people of East Slavic origin have been affected, one way or another, by the sudden war in Ukraine, which, to be honest, has been going on for far too long. And everyone has somehow reflected on their attitude not only toward it, but toward wars in general, even if they hadn’t thought about war before. This book represents an interesting philosophical experience of libertarian reflection on hypothetical wars of libertarians—here, again, the author speaks about what is closer to him and what he feels more deeply.

Who will find this useful? Well, definitely not hard-core materialists who do not believe in a libertarian paradise, nor those looking for specific recommendations like “storming a forest belt under conditions of enemy drone countermeasures” or “features of the strategy of highly decentralized armies.” Escapists will definitely like the author’s world, that’s a fact, and we will all derive practical benefit from this work when the specified world arrives. And the last part of the book will definitely prove useful, where a quite realistic case is considered: states have started to fight (or a war has started inside a state)—what would be ethically justified to do to preserve both one’s libertarian faith and one’s skin in such a situation, is it permissible to side with someone, and if so, to what extent, how, and why, or is it ethically justified to simply get away from this mess as far as possible? In principle, considering that, as already mentioned, the war has affected quite a lot of people, among whom was clearly the target audience of the book, discussing the ethical issues of a libertarian’s behavior in a war between states is clearly not useless. Let us note that at the beginning, the author makes references to his first work—an introduction to libertarianism—and clearly indicates the target audience of the book (essentially, it is a second volume continuing the theme), so from this point of view, everything is correct. If you are not in that audience, there is no point in complaining about the text.

Ah, and in conclusion, one cannot fail to mention the author’s most original feature. Emotions, which people are guided by (and which are by definition irrational), he considers as imaginary entities, so-called spirits, by which people can be possessed, and which are quite real from the point of view of physical influence on the world and peculiar desires. That is, one can say that a person killed someone out of hatred and revenge for the sad fate of a sheep stolen from him, or one can say that he did it because he was possessed by the spirit of the sheep craving vengeance, and this spirit will not rest until the offender’s blood is spilled. All this is laid out, again, elegantly and poetically; the question arises—how justified is it to introduce extra entities? On one hand, it seems we haven’t said anything new; on the other—the irrationality of human behavior, which leads to quite material consequences, is emphasized, and a uniform view of the entire spectrum of such behavior is provided. So, I hope the metaphor takes root; it is quite unconventional.

A Book About Contracts, Trust, and Trading Enterprises

I asked ChatGPT to style my longread about the problem of contracts as an Arabic treatise. You can see how it handled it in the following text; I haven’t changed a single letter, for as the Lord said: leave man to his manliness, and leave the neural-slop to the neural networks.

A Treatise on How Men Maintain Justice in Their Affairs When There is No Single Sovereign Over Them

In the name of Allah, the Most Gracious, the Most Merciful.

Praise be to Allah, Who created humans in need of one another and made the exchange of goods the cause of the prosperity of the lands. Peace and blessings be upon His Prophet, who was a merchant before he became a Messenger, and who said:

“The honest and trustworthy merchant will be on the Day of Resurrection with the prophets, the truthful, and the martyrs.”

Know then, O seeker of knowledge, that there exist societies where people primarily acquire what they desire through exchange, rather than through gift or violence. In such societies, well-being depends on trade, crafts, and mutual agreements. However, therein arises a particular difficulty: no one can guarantee in advance that every transaction will prove honest.

This is especially noticeable when one person fulfills their part of the agreement today, while another promises to fulfill theirs only after months or years.

Therefore, wise men since antiquity have resorted to written contracts.

The Almighty said in the Surah “Al-Baqarah”:

“O you who have believed! If you contract a debt for a specified term, write it down.”

Note that the Almighty does not command the recording of the purchase of an apple at the bazaar or a cup of sherbet in a teahouse. For such transactions are completed before a dispute can even arise. One hands over the goods, the other the money, and both depart satisfied.

But it is otherwise with agreements whose consequences stretch across time.

When a master hires a worker, he buys not labor already performed, but a promise of labor. When a craftsman accepts an order, he sells not a finished product, but a promise to manufacture it. When a merchant equips a caravan, he buys not goods, but the hope of future profit.

Therefore, the parties are forced to describe their expectations in detail.

Who provides the tools?

Who is responsible for damages?

How to distinguish diligence from negligence?

Which circumstances should be considered excusable?

Without such clarifications, each will later remember only that part of the conversation which is advantageous to them.

However, another difficulty arises here.

For human life is not like the drawings of a geometer.

Aristotle said that matters of practical wisdom do not possess the precision of mathematical objects. And indeed: if a triangle remains a triangle today and tomorrow, people are constantly changing.

A servant may become the friend of the master.

A student may become the companion of the teacher.

A companion may become a rival.

And a man hired to sweep the floor may turn out to be a skilled cook or a skilled thief.

Therefore, every contract is inevitably drawn up by people who know the future worse than it seems to them.

If the relationship ceases to benefit one of the parties, it can usually be terminated with moderate losses. The worker leaves the master, the master releases the worker, and the remaining disagreements are most often not so great as to destroy the lives of both parties for their sake.

But the most difficult case arises when it concerns the investment of capital.

For here the desires of the parties are inherently different.

He who gives the money would like to see it again someday, and with profit.

He who receives the money would be most pleased by a situation in which the money remains with him forever.

Therefore, commercial enterprises need a force that compels people to keep their promises.

However, here too, excess is as harmful as deficiency.

If coercion is too weak, no one will trust their funds to other people.

If coercion is too strong, then every unlucky entrepreneur risks becoming a slave to their creditors.

For the success of an enterprise is never guaranteed.

A ship may sink.

A caravan may be plundered.

A workshop may burn down.

And thus, not every loss is a consequence of deception.

Consequently, the prosperity of a state depends not on maximum severity nor on maximum leniency, but on the correct proportion between them.

In this matter, wisdom resembles what Aristotle called the mean between extremes.

For there exist two diseases of trade.

The first disease consists in that no one owes anyone anything.

In such a society, merchants quickly cease to trust one another, craftsmen work sloppily, and the borrower perceives other people’s money as a gift of fate.

The second disease is the opposite.

In such a society, every debtor lives under the threat of ruin, every worker chooses only between various forms of dependence, and those in power use their might to destroy competitors.

Both diseases are ruinous.

Therefore, reasonable people treat contracts with respect, but do not turn them into an object of worship.

For the contract exists for the benefit of people, and not people for the contract.

If every letter of the scroll becomes more important than common sense, then the contract gradually transforms from an instrument of cooperation into an instrument of domination.

For this reason, all trade rests on the presumption of good faith.

People must proceed from the assumption that their partner wishes to obtain benefit not through the destruction of the deal, but through its successful completion.

A good contract is beneficial to both parties.

If benefit is obtained by only one party, then we have before us not a contract, but a kind of command.

However, hope for good faith alone is not enough.

One must understand which forces make good faith profitable.

In all times, such a task was solved by communities.

A merchant did not travel simply as an individual.

Behind him stood his city.

His kin.

His guild.

His faith.

If the merchants of some city acquired a reputation as fraudsters, the next caravan from that city was met without former hospitality.

If anyone offended such merchants without cause, he risked bringing upon himself the enmity of the entire community.

Therefore, reputation became a kind of wealth.

Ibn Khaldun wrote that people achieve great goals only thanks to asabiyyah — mutual support and solidarity.

The same is true for trade.

However, here too, excess brings harm.

When belonging to a corporation becomes more important than a person’s abilities, the market loses flexibility.

Then monopoly takes the place of trust.

Privilege takes the place of reputation.

And coercion takes the place of cooperation.

Therefore, over time, other ways of ensuring trust emerged.

One of them was insurance.

In such a scheme, a third party appears, who receives payment for the readiness to cover losses from unforeseen circumstances.

But precisely because the insurer does not wish to pay extra, he carefully examines the behavior of the participants of the deal.

Thus, insurance not only distributes risks, but also encourages transparency.

However, it too is not a miracle.

Insurance protects well against misfortune, but protects poorly against evil intent.

If fraud proves more profitable than honest work, no insurance fund can exist for long.

Therefore, merchants also devised pledges and escrow accounts.

In some cases, the money remains with an intermediary until the obligations are fulfilled.

In other cases, the parties risk a pre-deposited security.

But these means too have limits.

They work well where the subject of the transaction already exists.

They work worse where the subject of the transaction is yet to be created.

Precisely for this reason, the most risky type of trade remains the investment of capital in new enterprises.


As the market develops, a greater number of interactions become customary.

Rules appear for them.

Standards.

Intermediaries.

Insurers.

Arbitrators.

Experience.

The world of trade gradually becomes like a beautiful garden, where the paths are paved with stone, dangerous places are fenced off, and a signpost stands at every intersection.

It is comfortable to live in such a garden.

But it is difficult to get rich.

For high profit arises where there are no paths yet.

Therefore, the largest fortunes are created not in the garden, but beyond its fence.

There, where merchants set out for unknown lands.

There, where seafarers seek new routes.

There, where people invest money not in an existing business, but in the mere possibility of its appearance.

Just as Sinbad the Sailor once obtained diamonds from a valley to which no safe path led, a prudent investor seeks opportunities where others see only danger.

Yes, dreamers, adventurers, and fraudsters will always gather around such enterprises.

But beside them, people capable of distinguishing fruitless madness from fruitful madness will also appear.

And it is they who will become the pioneers of new markets.

Others will come later, when the risk diminishes and the profit becomes more modest.

And therefore it should be concluded:

Contracts are necessary.

Reputation is necessary.

Surety is necessary.

Insurance is useful.

But none of these instruments is capable of completely ridging a person of risk.

For risk is the price people pay for the opportunity to discover something new.

And thus, the greatest riches are born not where there is no danger at all, but where people know how to face it with open eyes.

The Problem of Contracts

In the comments of Bitarch and Voluntarist’s post, a discussion flared up regarding contracts and their binding nature. Opinions ranged from the view that a contract is sacred to the view that a contract itself is not worth the paper it is written on, and that only the good will of the contracting parties matters. All this was accompanied by questions about how an ancap society is even supposed to be built if contracts are not observed there. I will try to outline my approach to the problem.

Ancap is a free market plus the decentralization of law. That is, on one hand, it presupposes developed exchange relations—gifting and coercion are not completely excluded, but they certainly do not dominate. On the other hand, there is no top-down guarantee that the exchange will prove to be fair. Especially in situations of deferred exchange, when one party to the deal provides real value right now, while the other promises some presumed value later.

Within the framework of this text, I will understand a contract as the accompaniment of an exchange transaction by certain non-obvious conditions. These are precisely what must be fixed in explicit form, because otherwise, it will inevitably turn out that the parties understood each other differently. There is no particular sense in composing a detailed text describing a transaction for buying vegetables at a market. Often, people don’t even ask for the price: a person simply scoops up the goods, shows them to the seller, the seller names some amount within reasonable limits, the person pays and leaves; everything works on defaults—so much so that one can even not know the language and simply show numbers on a calculator.

It is a different matter if it is assumed that the transaction should take place only if both parties agree to some deferred interaction. For example, there is an employment contract. One party promises productive labor, the other promises payment for that labor. But beyond this, a desire arises to ensure that the parties agree on which party provides the space, tools, and materials; what labor is considered productive and, accordingly, subject to payment, and what labor, conversely, is sabotage and subject to a fine; to what extent the employee is responsible for damage to the employer, and to what extent the employer for damage to the employee, and so on. Fixing this agreement in an explicit form allows, firstly, the parties themselves not to forget after some time what agreement was reached, and secondly, to appeal to this agreement in the event that any of the parties decides to involve third parties to secure their interests.

I need a diligent worker to build a palace…

There is an obvious problem here. Long-term relationships are inevitably accompanied by changes, sometimes quite radical. These changes may be impossible to predict in advance, or their possibility may have seemed too irrelevant at the start to be described. You hire a worker—and after some time you find that they are now a business partner or even a spouse. Or, conversely, that they are a competitor who secured the start of their own business using your client base. Or less radically: you hire a person for cleaning, and it turns out they also cook well. Or they clean the premises so thoroughly that they simultaneously “clean up” some valuables stored therein.

But employment is only half the battle. After all, if the relationship has changed significantly but both parties are interested in continuing it, the new relationship can be formalized through changes in the contract. And if one of the parties is interested in breaking off the relationship, they can simply leave the job or, accordingly, show the worker the door. In this case, the parties may have unresolved claims, but if the breakup is not delayed, the volume of claims will be small, and it will then be easier to write them off than to insist on a final settlement.

It is worse if we are talking about investments. There, a unilateral breach of relationship is precisely what the investor wants to avoid from the very beginning, whereas the recipient of investments is initially interested in exactly this scenario: just give me your money and leave forever. In order for investments to exist as a noticeable phenomenon despite such a powerful asymmetry in incentives, a systemic factor of coercion of the investment recipients is needed, so that they strive to fulfill the original agreements rather than presenting the investor with a fait accompli: the money is spent, there is no return, maybe something will be returned someday, inshallah. At the same time, when this factor works too harshly, the entrepreneur bears additional risks: the success of a business is never guaranteed, even if the entrepreneur did everything in accordance with the original business plan for which the investments were obtained. He may indeed find himself in a situation where the investments are spent, success is not achieved, there is nothing to return, and then the notorious coercion factor begins its violent actions to collect the debt. The cheaper coercion is for the investor, the more readily he will invest in dubious projects, and the harsher the conditions under which he provides investments will be.

The investment climate is precisely formed by the perception of such subtleties: how likely is the sudden intervention of third parties and natural forces into the bilateral relations fixed by the contract; how conscientious are entrepreneurs in following agreed-upon plans, or are they more inclined to collect money for one thing and spend it on another; but also conversely, how likely is it that the goal of providing investments is not the creation and development of a business, but the enslavement of the entrepreneur and turning him into a serf.

In other words, both extremes harm the economic prosperity of society. The conditionally left extreme is bad, where it is impossible to motivate a worker, and any somewhat complex project is simply not implemented because everyone has scattered to their own affairs and steals every single nail from work. And if you are foolish enough to lend money, you had better say goodbye to your money immediately; it will be spent on all sorts of good things, but by the very design of society, you are entitled to no benefit from this. But the conditionally right extreme is also bad, where a worker has a choice between several types of indentured contracts and starving to death, and if someone wishes to work for themselves using borrowed funds, the payment schedule will put them in conditions as difficult as those of a hired worker, only with the hourly prospect of falling into debt slavery. If someone starts a business using their own honestly saved funds, the person who has the resources to coerce their workers and debtors into order feels an irresistible temptation to use those resources to put spokes in the wheels of an independent competitor, even if this would be considered an unlawful act.

Ifrits or djinn? Marx or Pinochet?

Applying this to the topic of contracts, it means that, on one hand, contracts, being evidence of the existence of complex and structured declarations of the parties, are absolutely necessary in a society with a developed market and, generally speaking, should be respected. But, on the other hand, the desire to observe any contract to the last letter at any cost, as well as the desire to describe all conceivable conditions of interaction between the parties in contracts with incomprehensible precision, is counterproductive and leads to the loss of that very respect for contracts, since they begin to be perceived more as a tool of violence by the party who drafted the contract over the party who was given a ready-made text to sign.

The most important thing in contractual relations is the presumption of good faith of the participants. Both the parties to the contract and public opinion must be confident that a contract is, firstly, a privilege of equals (a document describing unequal relations is called a “statute”), secondly, stems from the parties’ desire for their own benefit, and thirdly, a good contract is beneficial to both parties. It is this presumption of good faith that makes one party seriously and benevolently consider the other party’s statement that the previous terms of the contract are no longer beneficial to them and therefore it is desirable to revise them, or if this is impossible, to carefully terminate the contract.

But good faith is not inherent in everyone and not under all conditions. In order for the presumption of good faith to justify itself, rather than prompting one to enter into contracts with fraudsters over and over again, one must understand that powerful incentives work toward this very good faith. It remains to understand what these incentives could be in a world with a developed market and an absence of centralized coercion.

Historically, such incentives were provided almost exclusively by the counterparty’s membership in a particular community that bore a share of responsibility for its member and was therefore forced to independently ensure their good faith in relations with the outside world. If merchants from a certain polis cheated while trading, subsequent merchants from that polis might be robbed or denied entry to the harbor. And if merchants from a certain polis were robbed without reason, a punitive expedition might sail in their stead. Or no one might sail at all, because your polis had acquired a bad reputation among traders. If you hire a stonemason from the guild of free masons, he will work so as not to bring shame upon his corporation. If Swiss mercenaries flee the battlefield, who will be interested in hiring Swiss mercenaries?

However, relying only on such insurance groups also entails costs. At some point, for example, it may turn out that you have the right to hire only a union member, otherwise both you and your worker are guaranteed problems. And now membership in a professional community becomes not a sign of quality, but simply an imposed inevitability. Tying a person to a corporation deprives the market of flexibility, forces the loss of profitable opportunities, slows down progress and, ultimately, harms general prosperity, not to mention that it provokes conflicts out of nowhere—that is, when outsiders poke into things that are seemingly not their business, claiming that they have an interest in this matter.

But if a person does not belong to a group that bears responsibility for them, how can their good faith be guaranteed through purely market incentives? In many cases, insurance can help. A third party is brought into the transaction, who receives an insurance premium and in exchange undertakes to guarantee compensation for damages from unforeseen circumstances that arose despite the good faith execution of contractual obligations by the parties. This party is interested in paying nothing for the insurance event and will therefore try to prove the bad faith of one party or another. This means that the parties become interested in drafting the contract and conducting business as transparently as possible so as not to be left holding the bag when it comes to the prospect of insurance payments.

Will such a scheme help us? Alas, only partially. It does not protect against conscious fraud if the profit from it exceeds the amount of the insurance premium. The fraudster has left with the money, and the insurance company shrugs and says that there is clear bad faith of the counterparty, which they did not insure against and do not intend to insure, because today you pay for the loss from a fraudster’s actions, and tomorrow half of all deals will become fraudulent.

To provide guarantees in trade and employment, escrow account mechanisms and various collateral schemes help quite well. In the case of escrow, the participants of the deal lose the ability to receive payment until they prove the fact of execution of contractual obligations to a third party. In the case of collateral, the loss of one participant of the deal from the actions of another is compensated by the value of the collateral. But this does not help protect the investor at all, because in investments for creating a business from scratch, it is specifically the investor who puts in the money, and the entrepreneur only gives a promise to direct this money toward creating a business that should bring profit.

Is this vulnerability so critical? One must look at the context. The market develops a habit of typical actions because they save transaction costs. In a developed market, competition leads to a decrease in insurance commissions, so insuring risks becomes not particularly expensive, and this is done almost everywhere. The world of typical market interactions turns into a cozy park with paved paths, detailed infographics, and fences in all dangerous places. Sweet, cozy, beautiful, and zero drive. In other words, the profitability of business decreases. A good haul can only be made by opening a new market. And only here do we enter the space of unprotected investments.

Venture investing, based on a bare business idea, is a conscious risk for the chance of a big win. Yes, this sphere will attract strange people: project-pushers, “info-gypsies,” simple fraudsters. But from the investors’ side, those who are ready to deal with such a crowd will enter this sphere—those who can sift through insane projects to find those whose insanity looks noble, reinforce inventor-maniacs with clever managers and technical specialists—in short, the market will reward those who set sail not in a washbasin, but at least in a caravel. And then legends will be composed about them, and someone will also earn money on the reproduction of these legends.

No more drinks for Sinbad!

Contracts, restitution, and pocket courts

The Austrian School denies objective value—value is determined by the subjective assessment of the parties at the moment of the transaction. However, Rothbard’s theory of restitution requires that a penalty correspond to the “actually transferred asset.” If value is subjective, then a corporation’s private court is entitled to recognize a $10 million fine for resigning from a post as a legitimate “transferred title”—and qualify the employee’s departure as fraud, opening the way to forced restitution through labor.

Who determines the proportionality of a penalty clause in a contract, and on what basis, if objective value does not exist and the interpretation is carried out by a court hired by one of the parties?

Konweni

As stated in the wording of the question, value is determined by the subjective assessment of the parties at the moment of the transaction. Accordingly, if a penalty amount is specified in the contract in case of its termination, it means that at the time of signing, the value of concluding the contract was higher for the potential payer of the penalty than the amount of the penalty itself. And if the penalty specified in the contract seems absurdly high to an outside observer, this tells us that it was absolutely imperative for the party in question to conclude this agreement at that moment. Another explanation is that the party signing the contract did not read the penalty clause or rashly assumed that it was some kind of nonsense that no one would take seriously, the key points were discussed verbally, and everything else is just empty legal blah-blah-blah.

However, since the question specifically refers to Rothbard’s opinion, he does not make the qualification about the actually transferred title of ownership for nothing. If an employee had been paid an advance and then left the job without working it off, then the penalty is justified, and its size can be calculated precisely from the amount of the advance (for example, the unpaid amount plus the costs of an urgent search for a replacement employee). But if the labor has not yet been paid for, then the asset has not been transferred, which means that penalty sanctions are inappropriate. This is simply a matter of a broken promise. The employer can try to demonstrate to the court what costs he incurred as a result of the employee’s actions, and the court may well take these calculations into account.

Of course, the contract may contain a clause stating that all disputes are settled in a certain court, which is a pocket court of the employer, unknown to the hired employee at the time of signing. The problem, however, is that the court itself does not engage in the enforcement of its decisions, and in the absence of a state, the plaintiff will have to do this themselves at their own expense (and they will also have to put the court entirely on their payroll, as clients are unlikely to flock there on their own). Of course, through his pocket court, he can impose a crazy penalty on the employee who fled from him, and then send thugs to force him to work it off, provided that the employee does not have such funds. But the economics of such actions only begin to add up in colonial conditions, that is, in the presence of overwhelming military superiority of a cohesive group of colonizers over a fragmented mass of natives. Directly in a free society, being a part of it, it will not be possible to pull off such tricks systematically; the non-legal nature of such an organization of work would be far too obvious. Even if this does not lead to unexpected sanctions from actual or potential counterparties, the employer will have to organize forced labor in a society with free labor, where no one will help him, for example, catch runaway workers. You need it, you catch them. And new workers will likely go and be hired by a competitor.

And now I will answer the asked question directly. Who will assess the proportionality of the penalty and on what basis? The employee will assess it, based on their own subjective considerations. If they pay voluntarily, then it is tolerable. If not, see the paragraph above.

— Hm, maybe I should sign? But that portrait on the wall is far too suspicious…

The Problem of Cartel Collusion in the Sphere of Protection under Ancap

Mancur Olson, in “The Logic of Collective Action,” proved that small groups with concentrated interests always win the coordination game against a diffuse majority due to the free-rider problem. Three CEOs will agree over dinner; a million customers never will, because each rationally waits for others to take the risk first.

What specific mechanism in ancap prevents a cartel agreement between two or three of the largest protection agencies to divide territories?

Konweni

This is a question that also concerned David Friedman. In the chapter “The Mechanics of Freedom,” concerning economies of scale, he reasons that in the law enforcement market, there seems to be a more pronounced positive economy of scale than he initially thought, which in turn increases the likelihood of a cartel agreement.

It seems to me that the cause of this excessive pessimism is the overestimation of the importance of direct armed protection in the security market. Literary descriptions of the security market under ancap are filled with some kind of universal protection agencies that are responsible for security in general across the most diverse aspects and scale easily. Of course, such an initial monopoly, already given in the problem statement, leads an honest analyst to conclude that such agencies will tend to grow significantly and enter into cartels, and their impact on people will be completely total, making the sale of such security services terribly dangerous for clients, as it is only one step away from total enslavement.

But where will these protection agencies come from? Who will be their clients, and what services will they buy from them?

Suppose I don’t live in peaceful Montenegro, where every house has a legal shotgun plus a couple of black guns left over from the war, but, say, in some place like Brazil. I have reasons to fear street attacks, car theft, and break-ins at my home. And then, a startup opens in the city that is ready to serve me, even if I wander into the favelas. What does such a startup need, within the technologies relevant at the time of writing this post? To reach an agreement with the company that owns the lamp posts to place cameras on them, as well as landing pads for drones with a charging function. Then, AI tracks suspicious actions, such as breaking into a house door or a car; a drone takes off from the nearest pole and demands a justification for the legality of the actions. In the case of an aggressive response, it applies measures of influence to the suspect, for example, firing a taser, after which it calls a live squad to process the detention. Similarly, in the case of an attack on a person: it flies in, demands they stop, reasons with those who ignore the instruction, waits for the squad, and returns to the nest. And then comes the court proceeding regarding how much to recover from the aggressor.

After working in this market for six months, the startup is surprised to find that its services are becoming less in demand because the city has become noticeably safer. And what, should they now start harassing me clandestinely so that I renew my subscription? No, of course not; they will simply make the subscription cheaper, and the drones that spend most of their time idle will be used, for example, for delivering pizza.

And what about peaceful Montenegro—do I not need protection agency services there at all? Of course I do. I need it so that when I break my leg while hiking in the mountains, brave rescuers in a helicopter fly to me and pull me out of that hole. Or pull me out of a car that flew off a cliff. Or find me in the sea when a storm carries me far from shore on a SUP board. Or get a cat down from a tree.

You realize that a Brazilian security startup won’t be able to enter the Montenegrin market because that market is completely different? Protection agencies are doomed to locality due to the local nature of threats, and are also doomed to a small size because the nature of threats also tends to change. It is harder for a large company to change, which means inefficiency, and inefficiency means saying goodbye to market share.

But surely there are functions for protection agencies that would be in demand globally? Of course there are, but these are specialized functions. For example, to find someone anywhere on planet Earth who owes me a vast amount of money and refuses to return it. Or a person who killed my mother and knows that I would like to burn him on her funeral pyre because she will need a servant there. Such agencies will not sell a subscription for service; they will have to take on rare one-off orders, as this market is too specific. It is impossible to build global dominance with the prospect of bending anyone to your will and subjecting them to your sinister market power based on this.

And what about the prospect of an external armed invasion? Shouldn’t private military companies be the backbone of any respectable social order if it wishes to call itself ancap? Shouldn’t such companies unite into a mega-cartel dictating its will to all of humanity? To the great regret of the adepts of this branch of human development, in peacetime, the peaceful average citizen is not inclined to finance the military. He doesn’t need war; he doesn’t buy it. An invasion army can only be equipped if you establish taxation on your territory. However, a militia for protection against an invasion army organizes itself in the presence of a free market—quickly, efficiently, and not too expensively, as shown by the experience of at least the Ukrainian war.

Continuing to settle into Nostr: building a pyramid

In my previous post on this topic, I told you how I set up my own personal Nostr relay. I used strfry, which is quite popular for large relays because it is stable and performant. However, I also wanted ease of configuration so that I wouldn’t have to work magic with console commands every time. An attempt to attach a web control panel on top of the existing relay was unsuccessful. The Khatru relay suggested by Grok turned out to be a project abandoned in early 2026. But its developer is @fiatjaf, the author of Nostr itself, and he doesn’t just abandon projects. So I started looking into what he is developing as a replacement and came across Pyramid. This is a specialized relay for community management; meaning, while it can handle basic relay functions, it also helps manage various private and club-like features.

After some tinkering, I uninstalled strfry and installed pyramid. Voila — I have an engine for developing an online community, and half a day later, the first invited client of the new relay appears. We discuss the process on Nostr in the comments of my previous post, and I tag the software creator. Fiatjaf likes this comment and then comes to me on Telegram, congratulates me on installing Pyramid, and starts asking for feedback on both the relay and Nostr in general. We already had a chat history from the time when he created a popular custodial Lightning wallet in the form of a Telegram bot, and I actively promoted it (that project was wound down, and Nostr emerged to replace it).

Anyway, I gave all the feedback I was capable of, given my limited experience and competence:

  • I asked for a more convenient format for adding a new user to the relay: the user clicks to leave a request, I click to approve or deny the request — basically, the familiar Telegram method. I received a promise that this would be done soon.
  • I asked for a monitoring service for relay availability from different corners of the network, suggesting an implementation option that doesn’t require renting servers all over the world. Fiatjaf said the option was doubtful, but he would try to attach one third-party service instead.
  • I asked for a service for local key generation so that new users could be sure that the Nostr client would not have access to their private key. He replied that he had already built a whole set of such utilities — both for offline key generation and for offline event signing, so security advocates can sleep soundly.

That’s where my imagination ran out for now, but I certainly assume that readers have or will soon have their own brilliant ideas.

Anyway, for anyone interested in testing a specialized relay for community management, welcome. Leave requests in the comments, and I will send the invitation link via DM — for now, this is the not-so-convenient connection mechanism in place.

https://stuff.fiatjaf.com — a collection of various things from the author of Nostr

https://github.com/fiatjaf/pyramid — description of the Pyramid relay

https://relay.ancapchan.info — my relay, where you can observe the community participant tree growing and publications appearing from them

I hope you won’t need a special guide on how to set up a Nostr account. Since it is a very decentralized ecosystem, there are already tons of ways to enter it, as well as ways to use it. But anyway, let me recommend that you start exploring via the Nostria client. I also know the developer there, Sondre Bjellos, a participant in the Liberstad and Montelibero projects; he lives three kilometers away from me (when he doesn’t head back to his native Norway, of course) and is very actively developing his client.

Libertarian Theory of War, Woven from Contradictions

Alex Rozov, a left-wing anarchist and author of the transutopia cycle, has read my “Libertarian Theory of War” and shared his impressions on his channel. I felt it necessary to add the word “left-wing” to his description so that the reader would better understand where he gets such a strange conception of ancap:

Ancap society is based on the non-aggression principle. Every member of society recognizes the established distribution of property and promises not to seize by force what is recognized as belonging to someone else.

It is quite characteristic for leftists to speak not of the ways of acquiring property, but of the distribution of property; not of methods (exchange), but of results (inequality), and so on. However, it would be a sin for me to be indignant about someone else’s inclination toward such holistic constructs, since I myself operate with the concept of collective speculative subjects, aka spirits, in my book.

I view war for resources within my classification as one of three causes of war, and I separately indicate that for libertarians, this type of war is marginal: although the forceful acquisition of resources may be legitimate (in the case of restitution), it is usually too expensive to make sense. Alex, however, interprets the text as if it were entirely about the seizure of resources, while everything else is apparently insignificant lyrical digressions—some kind of war for freedom, what are you even talking about. I don’t know if the entire pathos of the book completely passed him by, if this part of the reasoning is too banal for him and therefore does not require separate analysis, or if it is simply uncharacteristic for Alex to speak of ethics where it is not verified by economics. To some extent, the epigraph to the book is precisely my polemic with such a purely economic approach to conflicts.

Upon reaching section 2.3.3 (I hope he progressed further afterward), Alex saw a logical dead end: war is expensive, a temptation may arise to forcefully extract resources from uninvolved parties, and that is lawlessness, so that’s the end of your ancap. That is essentially where his analysis of the book ends.

Meanwhile, the text explicitly states that even if such requisitions are accompanied by promises to compensate everything, the person subjected to the requisitions still has the full right to resist this by any means, up to lethal ones. In other words, he may consider this the beginning of a war against him, where he is the defending party, and you can’t argue with him, damn it, because he is right; therefore, try to remain within the framework of voluntary transactions with outsiders even during wartime, and do not make new enemies for yourself. Perhaps I should have articulated this point more clearly. Perhaps Alex was simply looking for something to nitpick. If you think the text should be adjusted, please suggest options.

Decentralization of publications, homework

Yesterday, I felt a sudden urge to have my own personal relay for Nostr. My system administration skills are practically zero; even the ancapchan.info site was once built and configured for me without my involvement. But since then, LLMs have appeared, and it would have been a sin not to use them. So, I dug into Grok, and after a few hours of tinkering, the relay relay.ancapchan.info was up and running. This fully revealed the peculiarities of the protocol’s decentralization. For instance, broadcasting a test message only through my single relay turned out to be convenient via the Snort client, syncing relays is convenient via Amethyst on Android, and Nostria knows how to broadcast an arbitrary event as raw JSON, and so on.

The purpose of a personal relay is to store a full archive of my publications, private messages, and everything else, as well as the content of those I follow. This is a good step toward local autonomy, although still far from the ideal I described in the third “Notes on Decentralization”. I still have to figure out backups and content management, and then, perhaps, it will come to providing this relay for use by the local community. And if it proves to be in demand by the community, then it will be, again, a step toward centralization: someone bothers with their own server, and someone uses shared ones—why not.

At this rate, I’ll even properly connect a wallet to Nostr (currently it only works conveniently for receiving), set up a Lightning node, or even start “vibecoding” something…

Readers are also pleasing me with their examples of using neural networks. For instance, one of them opened a resource where they post AI-narrated books for free, including those on libertarianism/Austrian Economics. Of course, a certain amount of cringe remains in AI narration, but it is so much cheaper that it’s a sin not to use it. For those who find it easier to listen than to read, welcome: website, Telegram bot. By the way, the AI narrations of my two books are already there (I’ve already added direct download links to my book pages: Ancap, War).