An outside look at Russia and the protests

I won’t venture to judge the details of another round of protests in Russia that took place yesterday, but I am glad that it has increased in size, and it seems to me that either people have learned how to avoid detention, or the Moscow authorities are no longer daring to be so fierce. Either way, there are fewer detainees than a week ago, and no particularly mass cruelty is visible in the photos.

In Georgia, everyone I talk to, upon learning that I am from Russia, immediately asks what is happening in Moscow, from which it can be concluded that in the information space, the protest has long since overcome local boundaries. Moreover, this cannot be attributed to biased coverage of the situation by Georgian media: I was asked questions by tourists from Turkey, Romania, and the Netherlands. I should also note that I am not at some political conference here—all around are carefree vacationers; one would think they wouldn’t care.

Naturally, the sympathy of the global public is on the side of the protesters. However, it is equally on the side of the protesters in Hong Kong, the yellow vests, the Venezuelan opposition, and so on. When volunteers are on one side and salaried employees are on the other, people sympathize with the volunteers. Even regarding the events in Kyrgyzstan, where it seems to be a matter of “the toad and the viper,” the mere fact that people are ready to voluntarily stand up for the former president and fight for him against the authorities already tells people that the government probably shouldn’t have started this whole assault.

I am also constantly assured that I have nothing to fear, that the attitude toward Russians here is still just as friendly. To be honest, this sometimes looks like a mantra for self-convincing. Evidence to the contrary also turns up. I won’t say much, I’ll just provide a few photos.

Suggesting not to feel at home
Ruining good drawings because of the author’s Russian language
But there are also statements that any Russian patriot would sign

11th Anniversary of the Georgian War

I am currently in Georgia.

Yesterday I checked into a hotel, and in the evening we sat with the owner and chatted. He told me:

  • that the cursed Saakashvili started a war with Russia, caused a rift between two good countries, and they still haven’t been able to reconcile.
  • that under the cursed Saakashvili, the police killed and raped, and now, finally, they have stopped.
  • that in 2012, Saakashvili prepared to usurp power after losing the elections, but half of the special forces refused to fight the people, and the dictator had to leave.
  • that during the war with Russia, many officers abandoned their weapons because they did not want to fight for the regime, but wanted Georgia to become Russian; later they were imprisoned for 10 years, but were released under the new government.
  • that under the cursed Saakashvili, LGBT people became completely unrestrained and felt at home in an Orthodox country.
  • that this clown has no and never had popular support.

And then I watched a recent interview of Saakashvili with Alexey Romanov, and there Saakashvili says that Ivanishvili’s regime is illegitimate, he no longer has popular support, and decisive clashes between the regime and the people are about to begin.

What conclusion would I like to draw from all this? Value sociological data! As long as you are surrounded by your comrades, you are in an echo chamber. You have no idea how popular your views are in society, and when you decide to hold a rally or participate in elections, unpleasant surprises may await you. On the other hand, if conducting sociological research is for some reason impossible for you, then mass actions themselves become sociology for you. If you managed to bring tens of thousands of supporters to a rally — perhaps hundreds of thousands will vote for you. If you didn’t — then do not be deceived, work on recognition and fight the anti-rating (for example, by changing your leader).

As for the interview, watch it; it is actually mostly not about Georgia, but about Russia.