In May, Bitarch and I on one side, and Ved Neumann on the other, debated the applicability of the deterrence doctrine to ensure the secession of individuals from the state. Here is a description of the doctrine, and here is a summary article, which also briefly recounts the course of the discussion.

A frequent criticism of the described doctrine was that it remains unknown whether the threat against the key functionaries of the aggressor state will actually be carried out, while the death of a citizen seeking secession could be very swift, leaving them no time to organize retribution. Moreover, if they openly insure themselves somewhere, a sad fate might await the insurance company as well, as a warning against fulfilling various anti-state contracts.

Therefore, today we will talk a bit about how a citizen can ensure the implementation of individual deterrence without putting any outsiders at risk.

The dead hand principle is a kind of threat against a potential aggressor that will be executed only if the potential victim perishes. The most vivid embodiment is a grenade with the pin pulled, held in the very much living hand of the potential victim. Their death will lead to the dead hand relaxing and an explosion occurring. Clearly, a threat based on this principle can be scaled quite arbitrarily, up to a system implementing the automatic launch of intercontinental nuclear missiles in the event of an attack by a potential adversary, without waiting for special commands from a potentially already destroyed command post.

One could fantasize about purely engineering solutions in the spirit of the 20th century that would provide such a threat scheme for a person against the state leadership—for example, by pre-mining residences, deploying rocket launchers, or programmed combat drones, but all this looks disproportionately expensive, clumsy, and unreliable. Our information age implies a slightly different style.

For example, with the appearance of bitcoins, decentralized death betting markets became quite feasible, which is a veiled form of a contract killing. The mechanism is roughly as follows.

On a website that accepts bets on certain events that may or may not happen in real life (for instance, implemented on the Augur protocol), a potential victim of state aggression can place a bet on the death of a certain government official. The size of the bet must be large enough to tempt someone to ensure that very death. The money is bet on the fact that this official already died on some day in the past, which is obviously untrue; therefore, when the official actually dies, this bet will lose, and the winner of the wager will receive it. After the bet is placed, a potential hitman only needs to choose a day to execute the order, bet that the target will die on that specific day, then commit the murder, wait for the oracles to notify the system, receive their winnings, and carefully cash them out. This wager is our grenade, but a dead hand mechanism must still be organized.

One could take a more sophisticated route and place another bet on the same market, this time on one’s own death. If this bet wins, it triggers a smart contract that then places the bet on the official’s death. But it could be simpler: a smart contract that places a bet on the official’s death is given a delayed launch and triggers if it does not receive a cancellation code in time. That’s it; now you can notify the official that, unfortunately, if I accidentally die, your precious life is in great danger, so you had better treat me with the utmost care.

Of course, the more complex the predictions the service allows, the more carefully and moderately the impact can be planned. For example, the trigger could be not only death, but also arrest, and the threat not only death, but the burning of a house, or some other non-lethal nuisance (the most elegant thing I’ve come across was an order to spray a powerful odorant in an official’s residence; a house thoroughly stinking of mercaptans is no longer fit for habitation or sale, yet no one dies even accidentally).

Naturally, to undertake these non-trivial measures, a person must be sufficiently wealthy, but this does not require exorbitant riches, so the task is quite manageable.