I am trying in every way to get through to our OLs with my idea of the PRB, but it’s not going very well. I specifically went to the Adam Smith readings, which you commented on so wonderfully, in order to meet someone at the afterparty. No one but Topolev was there, and even he was in a hurry, so we couldn’t really talk. I caught Kyneva after his speech, but it was also useless—a petty, spiteful, stubborn little shit. I’m not great with donations, but I hope you will read this and answer something. About the electoral system and about the concept of the PRB (Beautiful Republic of the Future😉) in general.
Read it. Answering something.
The author of the question proposes a rather detailed blueprint for the constitutional structure of Russia, asserting that something along these lines could quite well be implemented as soon as Putin kicks the bucket. In some ways, this echoes a recently published article for “Fronda” about democracy, where I point out that power must be carefully broken into small pieces, without granting anyone full authority, and the boundaries of powers must be made as clear as possible; however, this still won’t help, and a democratic republic is doomed to slide into tyranny—well, you all know these further banalities about watering the tree of Liberty and similar high agrarian technologies of the Ancients.
And now I want to talk about something else. It is possible and necessary to disagree with one another. It is foolish and unworthy to refuse to understand others. It is dangerous to oversimplify one’s understanding of others, although this certainly saves mental effort. Call Kyneva a spiteful shit, Bitarch a schizo-fascist, Svetov a pedophile—and the world becomes simple and orderly, except that such a picture of the world will be irrelevant. In it, all of a person’s actions end up subordinated to the label that has been slapped on them. One can also slap labels on entire nations; this is just frighteningly convenient. Let the Russians be orcs, the Ukrainians stupid peasants, the Serbs orcs, the Montenegrins stupid peasants, the Croats orcs, the Americans stupid peasants, the Chinese orcs… Well, in general, we have a huge wealth of labels; there is enough for everyone.
If a label has been slapped on you, it can be useful to turn to the other side so that another label is slapped on you; then at least some stereo appears, some volume, some space for discussion. If you are presenting your beautiful model of the Beautiful Mordor of the Future, and the listeners for some reason are not impressed, you can, for example, ask your interlocutor how they envision the desired structure of the future global concentration camp, and what they prefer on the menu: freedom of immigration or universal basic income? And if both, then what will we season it with: commodity shortages or hyperinflation? Or you could even avoid mocking the obvious flaws of the proposed model and, instead, speak of the overall picture respectfully, emphasizing that there is something in common between your visions of the world order, and why not start building a productive interaction around this common ground. For example, one could find some kinship between the proposed model of a federative Russian republic according to Elitsur and the Hoppean model of a thousand Liechtensteins, and, having highlighted the commonalities, start considering whether there are any fundamental disagreements between the models, or if it’s basically a matter of taste and one shouldn’t cling too tightly to the details.
In general, if one were to take an example of how a certain complex of ideas is spread, I like the experience of the Jesuits: those guys learned languages and learned to convey their concepts using the local cultural code. I love syncretism.
I apologize to the wide circle of readers for the somewhat rambling nature of this post—I simply do not understand the person I am answering well enough, so I am just sighting in.
Just submitted an article to the editorial board for the third issue of “Fronda”. And if that’s the case, why not make your own column from the second issue, dedicated to democracy, publicly available? Here it is, please enjoy:
Lessons of Freedom
Hello everyone, it’s Anka-tyan with you again, and today we’re talking about the lessons that a social structure like democracy gives us.
Lesson of Resolution
Ancient Greek democracy began with tyrannicides. Since then, killing a tyrant is considered good manners and a pretty decent prelude to establishing a more free political order. Most tyrants have drawn this lesson, so they try to maintain the outward appearance of democracy. Let’s draw the same lesson for ourselves:
The most direct way to establish democracy is to destroy the tyrant… Destroying an army or an economy is a much more roundabout and unreliable way. Negotiating with a tyrant about his peaceful departure is even less reliable.
Lesson of Vigilance
Fighting for democracy, people don’t want democracy itself. They want freedom from tyranny – that is, from a regime in which they are arbitrarily subjected to violence. Democracy is just a family of various compromise social structures designed to prevent a recurrence of tyranny. The common thing in all stable democracies is the principle of separation of powers. No one owns all power! Tyranny of the popular assembly is just as tyrannical as the tyranny of one person. Let’s formulate our lesson as follows:
Construct a system of self-government so that your community doesn’t give anyone the opportunity to seize power. No expansive interpretations of norms! No extraordinary powers! Any holder of power is a potential tyrant. Be vigilant!
Lesson of Distinguishing Goals and Means
Coordination in a community implies working to ensure it. Someone needs to do this work. We need to find and involve someone in this. How to look for them? In modern democracies, everything usually comes down to two mechanisms: an official is appointed by a higher authority, or they are elected by vote. Voting is just one of the possible meansof achieving a compromise solution in selecting candidates from a group, and it has a lot of drawbacks. There are many other means. The most unbiased means was originally considered lots. There are also exams and other types of competitions, there’s the purchase of positions, there are tenders, there is volunteering… Democracy doesn’t reduce to voting. The lesson is obvious here:
Don’t substitute goals with means. Don’t try to use a tool for everything, even if it’s very fashionable. Use what is simpler, more reliable, and that solves the specific task that has been set.
Lesson of Breaking Out of the Vicious Circle
Как ни распределяй власть, какие ни внедряй сдержки и противовесы, как ни связывай власть имущих законами, система со временем деградирует. Деградировав, она порождает новых тиранов, а потом по их головы приходят новые тираноборцы… Что может помешать соблазну сконцентрировать власть? Только одно: отсутствие того, что можно сконцентрировать.
Если координация происходит добровольно, в этом процессе нет места для того, кто принуждает. Чем больше места занимают добровольные отношения, тем меньше места занимают властные. Отсюда простой урок:
Если вам что-то нужно от других, спрашивайте, что хотят взамен. Не считайте, что вас должны обслужить даром. Если от вас что-то требуют, называйте свою цену. Не считайте, что вы должны обслуживать других даром. Согласны сотрудничать – сотрудничайте. Не согласны – не сотрудничайте. Всякий претендующий на власть должен понимать: принуждать людей себе дороже. Будут саботировать и искать удобного случая ударить исподтишка. Никому не хочется войти в историю в качестве свергнутого тирана.
Подведём итог
С одной стороны, демократия – это способ не дать немногим всю полноту власти над большинством. С другой стороны, демократия это возможность для большинства получить общественные блага дешевле, чем они бы стоили на рынке. Это большой соблазн, но надо отдавать себе отчёт в том, что это тоже тирания, только тирания большинства. Переход к рынку вместо принуждения – это нравственный выбор людей, которые сознательно отказываются быть тиранами. Только этот путь ведёт к настоящей свободе.
Finished chapter 3.2, which describes waging war in the event that a group attacks. The most interesting scenario is analyzed — when a group attacks a state.
For the sake of brevity, I preferred to limit myself to considering the situation where you are in the attacking group, rather than when some outsiders are trying to destroy your beloved state. Perhaps I will still need to write this subsection later, but I will try to do without it.
Things are either feast or famine for me: new posts are coming out quite frequently in November, and poor Bitark doesn’t even have a chance to get a word in. Another article from the old archives is on the way, as well as one answer to a subscriber’s question.
The final edited translation of another chapter from Stephan Molinari’s book Practical Anarchy has been posted—about how a stateless society solves the problem of issuing reliable money. The text was written shortly before the appearance of Bitcoin, and therefore it does not concern how a stateless society can ensure reliable money despite the will of governments, but merely how it all could work in the absence of state opposition.
Nevertheless, the text is by no means useless. In essence, it describes the prospects of what the tokenomics of Montelibero could turn into if it were to achieve significant scale. We already have a fairly developed system of private monetary obligations of varying liquidity, but overall our monetary market is still too small for there to be economic sense in the emergence of complex clearing systems. Our private money largely takes the form of obligations backed by goods and services offered by the issuer, and the issuance represents a form of obtaining a loan to launch or maintain the production of these very goods and services. Accordingly, the more widely a service is demanded, the more liquid the monetary obligations issued for it become.
Molinari will soon be finished, and it is not a given that I will take on new large projects for translation. Firstly, people do not read long texts very often. For example, during the entire time a volunteer-translated draft of the chapter on money was on my site, no one complained that a page of text was simply missing from the middle. Secondly, if a person needs to tackle a text in a foreign language, they search for a translation less and less often, and more and more often trust the on-the-fly translation tools built into the browser. Yes, neural networks produce a mediocre semi-finished product, but for simple texts this is enough, and in the case of complex ones, the reader usually has a good understanding of the subject and understands what the author wanted to say, even based on a poor translation of individual difficult parts.
Because of my new job, I don’t have a lot of free time right now, but there is still a little left for entertainment. Since I’ve been asked to promote some of these activities, I think I’ll share my plans for the coming month.
On November 3rd, I’m setting aside time for Adam Smith Readings. Traditionally, on this day, instead of long-form posts, I will have many short notes throughout the presentations. I will definitely post them on Telegram; as for Huitter and Nostr, we’ll see depending on the circumstances. The organizers promise nine speakers. My favorites in terms of anticipation for exciting and non-trivial presentations are Kapelyushnikov and Vatoadmin; Morozov will probably trigger me, Bazhenov will likely put me to sleep, Ali’s presentation topic looks like a box-ticking exercise, Kynev’s topic looks like a story about some alternative universe, and I don’t know Salnikova and Troparevsky. They won’t bring in an English-speaking speaker, which is understandable—Mordor is for orcs. Overall, my expectations are quite high. I hope there are no internet outages on the Russian side.
November 7th is a memorable date for all extremists, so I’m dedicating it to an extremist event: the press conference of the Association of Arbitration Courts, where the courts belonging to the Association will, among other things, sign a memorandum on the framework of cooperation. I was invited there by the organizer of this whole movement, since the offer for my own court has been posted in the public domain for quite a while. I already have experience judging within the Association, so we will develop the cooperation.
Also, theoretically, the MTL-fest is supposed to take place in Podgorica on November 27th, but I have a very strange attitude toward it right now. The first one was in MTL-City, and its main goal was to brag about how ancaps know how to build roads. The second was in Bar, and its main goal was to bring in Pozharsky to speak, since Svetov was brought to the first fest. The third will be in Podgorica, in English, and its main goal will be to show that Montelibero is just another harmless NGO and shouldn’t be crushed by the state’s boot. It’s not very clear how much I need to be there, or how much they need me. But I’m keeping it in mind anyway.
And it’s not all just talk. Valera asked me to mention his media project RoninRoker, where he posts multi-genre songs on the theme of freedom. These are, of course, neural network creations, but they are certainly no more embarrassing than Bitarkh’s articles. Three versions are provided for each song: Russian, English, and Serbian. Valera also performs these live, which further blurs the line between human and machine creativity. In terms of mood, with the onset of the rainy season, “Neon Freedom” felt closest to me, so I’ll attach it here as an illustration.
When considering emigration, the topic of marriage was entirely dismissed by me, as migration was considered a purely personal project. Now I want to contemplate how migration affects everything concerning marriage.
By “marriage” can be understood different degrees of rapprochement. For some, marriage boils down to primarily sexual rights, for others it implies more or less shared housekeeping, and for many it’s simply relationships formalized in a state-issued official document.
Institutional pressure encourages people toward increasingly officially-registered marriages. A constant partner enjoys greater neighborly goodwill than a constant change of partners. Standard apartments are usually designed for two adults, so living alone in them is disproportionately expensive, while cohabiting with three – considerably less convenient. Finally, having a marriage certificate can reduce aggressive government pressure or even give the government some benefits.
If a person has adapted to these factors and entered into marriage, his life becomes organized, easier, more predictable and calmer, until circumstances change. And here, the rigidity of such a structure as officially registered monogamous marriage with joint housekeeping inevitably leads to fragility, since under new conditions everything needs to be restructured. Circumstances can relate to the personal emotional sphere – for example, a more attractive potential partner appears. They can – to economic, for instance, one of the partners changes their field of activity and income level. And they can – to relationships with the state, for example, one of the partners is mobilized into the army or begins to be persecuted for unenthusiastic thoughts.
The latter category of changes most often leads to such a step as emigration, although, of course, economic factors and personal ones can also influence this. At this stage, marriage is easily able to collapse. One partner decides to bail out, the other has never thought about it before and doesn’t plan it further, which means they will have to break up. The more actively the state stimulates one of the partners to leave, the fewer opportunities there are to civilly divide what has been acquired, and the greater the likelihood that you will have to leave with one backpack and a cherished “seed phrase” instead of illiquid assets, children and livestock left behind by those who don’t go anywhere. Life completely starts from scratch. Some find this quite convenient, others it completely breaks them, but in any case, now it’s not about marriage.
If the marriage withstood this test, new dangers threaten it. In a foreign country, much will be exaggerated by partners, and quite possibly – differently. Economic roles in the family can readily change places. This often happens due to the fact that higher incomes usually correlate with more specialized skills. As a result, someone who earned more at their previous position will find themselves without demand for their specialization on the new one, their income will decrease, and the second partner will become the provider.
Moreover, various preferences in lifestyle may emerge. For example, the customs of one partner will seem pleasant in the new location, while to the other they’ll seem unattractive. As a result, one will enjoy the new society, while the other will isolate themselves, old network contacts and nostalgia for their homeland. In short, even if both partners agreed that emigration was necessary, it might turn out that different countries are more suitable for them.
To top it all off, the factor of state pressure won’t disappear and on a new place either. It’s quite possible that one partner will be unwelcome to the receiving country, and he will require a new emigration, while the second has just started to settle in and is determined not to repeat the traumatic experience of moving.
In general, marriages in emigration break up much more frequently than they do at home – and this is despite the fact that people in the unfamiliar environment should ostensibly hold onto each other even tighter. This also happens, and joint trials can only strengthen relations.
So, people often go to emigration as unanchored individuals, or they become such after arriving on a new place. Of course, they seek out new partners among the immigrant community and local residents. This is facilitated by the same institutional pressure, however it may take unusual forms. For example, in the Balkans, locals tend to acquire Russian brides more often, while in impoverished countries of Southeast Asia – Russian grooms.
Also, in emigration, an official marriage certificate usually has much greater significance, since it’s typically one of the grounds for obtaining a residence permit, and in the case of marriage with locals – also citizenship.
However, a loner may, on the contrary, decisively refuse to make strong personal connections again if, for example, emigration forced him to experience their painful breakup. In this case, he will be looking for something lighter and generally trying not to get involved in anything. This is also quite rational behavior, although, of course, if a person manages to find themselves a full new homeland, then over time everything else will come into play. Let’s wish these people that their new homeland does not disappoint them like the old one.
In conclusion, I want to recall the thesis from the previous article – that for a successful emigration, it’s useful to travel with a head start, arriving in an established community of ideologically like-minded people. Such a community will accelerate all processes related to your marriage. If your marriage proves unsuitable for the new country, then with a community present, it will break up faster. If you are worthy of each other, the community will even strengthen your bond further, giving you fertile ground for joint activity. Finally, if your marriage breaks up and you’re looking for a long-term or fleeting alliance, you’ll have more chances to find one in the community.
Anyway, whatever your fate turns out to be, remember that every voluntary decision you make is intended to change a less preferable state into a more preferable one. And if you understand anything about life, you’ll take more correct decisions than wrong ones, and therefore everything will be fine for you.
In his time, the article by Savva Shanaev “Mathematics in Defense of Libertarianism” made a strong impression on me. It presented various models of agent behavior, exploring how they seek to minimize personal costs through democratic reforms, migration, or secession. The modeling results indicated that public costs decreased most rapidly when individuals exercised “vote with feet,” and that democratic mechanisms played only a supplementary role. Regarding secession – the formation of a new jurisdiction – it functioned effectively only with significant local self-sufficiency.
Naturally, this model’s effectiveness depends on minimizing the cost of status changes; therefore, the article framed it as an argument for extraterritorial contractual jurisdictions. However, analyzing how these three jurisdictional change options function in reality reveals that secession or a state transition via democratic means is incredibly expensive, lengthy, and requires coordinating numerous individuals. Migration, conversely, remains cheaper and effective even when it’s a purely individual undertaking.
Applying Theory to Real Immigration
When considering relocating to another country, people often focus solely on the relationship between an individual and the state. Consequently, they select countries where the state is perceived as benevolent and offering superior conditions. This severely restricts their choices, often to nothing, leaving them in their current location. Some substitute the state with a corporation for which they intend to work, assuming it will provide immigrants with all necessary support. This is valid until a job offer arrives from a reputable company. However, according to Shanaev’s model, any local community with its own rules – including those pertaining to collaborative problem-solving – can function as a jurisdiction. Such communities provide far greater opportunities for actively voting with your feet in pursuit of a better life. A corporation might hire you today and lay you off tomorrow; the state may welcome you today and deport you tomorrow. Individuals whose values aligned with yours at the time of joining the community will only begin to irritate you if those values change within the community, or if your own evolve.
In principle, the community is completely unnecessary to relocate to a new country if it can instead geographically isolate itself and remain in an old one. But specifically in РФ, this would be a dubious decision. Firstly, the cost of relocating to another part of the country may not be lower than the price of moving to another state, simply due to the immense scale of Russian Russia. And secondly, the Russian state is extremely suspicious of organized communities and will pursue any cohesive group for the mere fact of cohesion, regardless of loyalty to the current course of the state.
Some Observations and Recommendations
I, of course, assume that the target audience for this article is libertarians. However, libertarianism may not be your primary identity. For example, you might primarily consider yourself a streamer. Or a chemist. Or a vegan. Basically, your wishes regarding the surrounding order can be quite specific, but whether they are sufficiently libertarian remains secondary to you compared to the width of the internet channel, the frequency of tournaments, or the availability of tofu.
Therefore, before deciding to go to a certain place, you can always first familiarize yourself with local public chats and similar resources to try to feel the vibe of that place. Of course, all legal restrictions are important, as even if there are ways to circumvent them, this still means additional hassle and risks. And of course, it’s best when there is an opportunity to first come for reconnaissance, sniff the air, get to know the local community, understand how they live, and how comfortable it would be to join them.
Of course, there are those whose activity is almost entirely focused on the network. Their income – online. Their friends and like-minded people – online. The entire context of their communication is also online. They require only an inexpensive, comfortable environment and fleeting acquaintances from the offline world. This approach greatly expands the choice of countries, and if income and temperament allow, you can freely roam the world based on the weather at the window, discounts on tickets, and fleeting whims.
It’s the most difficult thing for those with strong offline attachments. Usually this is elderly parents and various pets. Exactly for such people the choice between their interests and the interests of loved ones is usually unambiguous: of course, you have to sacrifice your own. If you are one of these, it will be difficult to convince you; I suspect that you are only hiding the interests of loved ones, while actually just fearing any changes. And therefore, changes will catch up with you right on the spot. Practice shows that people move in families and with pets; there would be a desire to.
And there’s another category you should say something about. It’s enthusiastic idealists. They have a clear idea of how things *should* be. They get infected with the idea of moving to a community of like-minded people, they throw everything away and go. And at the new place it turns out that everyone around is just down-to-earth, no circles are formed around them, no hymns are sung in the mornings. Disappointed, they return just as quickly, spending a huge amount of resources on their wanderings and harboring bitter resentment towards those they were so recently charmed by. If you recognize one of these on online resources of your community, ban him immediately, without waiting for him to arrive. It will be much easier for everyone. If you recognized yourself in this description (which is unlikely), then accept my sympathy: I don’t know how to help you. Try to practice stuffing your head with ideas, without putting everything on the line all at once.
Brief Conclusions
Emigration is a quite radical step that allows you to build a life in a new place, with new people, according to new principles. The more readily people are willing to emigrate, the better the world around them begins to conform to their values.
When emigrating “to the state,” a libertarian chooses from kinds of shit. It’s much more logical to emigrate “to a community,” presenting only minimal demands for the state so it doesn’t stink too much, while studying potential future friends and neighbors with much greater care.
The latter applies to those who have already formed an emigration community: don’t call everyone in indiscriminately. The person who is obviously not going to fit in can usually be recognized even at the stage of preliminary acquaintance. Even a totalitarian sect cannot cut out each neophyte, and libertarians all the more so.
The book on libertarian theory of war is steadily moving toward completion. Having previously analyzed wars initiated by an individual, I am now describing situations in which a group starts the war. So far, the sections on a group attacking an individual and group on group have been completed. The “group versus state” scenario is on the way.
The process of writing the book is bringing me unexpected discoveries. For instance, at the very beginning, I had to deviate from strict methodological individualism and introduce collective subjects. Now, I have come to the point where I am encroaching on the holy of holies, asserting that when analyzing group-on-group war, there is no practical sense in determining who is the aggressor and who is the victim. In short, read it, and I will be glad to receive your comments.
I’ve been advised that I haven’t talked about Montelibero at all lately. That’s not entirely true; it’s just that I usually write about specific problems, whereas there truly hasn’t been a general overview of the state of affairs in the project for a very long time. I’m correcting that now.
Overview
For a long time, the project’s calling card was MTL-City. This is also what undermined it. One day, a local journalist appeared who, based on separate and loosely connected facts, concluded that Montelibero was a Putin project created for another attempt at a coup in Montenegro, similar to the one that took place in 2016. As a result, the state, having received such a public denunciation, became interested specifically in the activities of DOO Montelibero, the legal entity through which the land in City was purchased. A criminal case regarding illegal construction was opened, and as a result, the construction of all permanent structures was frozen pending the investigation. Well, now only modular houses are being assembled there, which, being temporary structures, require no installation permits. However, the unfinished construction doesn’t look very pretty, not to mention the money buried in vain.
Nevertheless, people live in City, public breakfasts are held on Fridays—for those wishing to meet the project participants—plus there are occasional creative evenings and other cultural events. However, to people who have just arrived in Montenegro and want to “settle in this commune of yours,” I advise against jumping on this idea without thorough prior acquaintance. In City, the ratio of costs to comfort is not very optimal, and there is practically no choice of housing. This situation will improve as new modular houses for rent are put into operation—but not very quickly.
The main Montelibero community, as before, resides in the city of Bar, spreading fairly evenly across the city, some in rented housing and some in purchased. They have the opportunity to gather at the First Montelibero Club (it was evicted from its premises in the spring, but recently opened in a new location), at Quiet Backwater (it was evicted from its premises in the summer, but reopened in a new location almost immediately), as well as in several non-Montelibero Russian bars, where the crossing of Monteliberians with the rest of the Russian diaspora occurs most naturally. In Budva, the Montelibero movement has practically gone quiet; in other cities, it never started.
Tokenomics is used by the local Montelibero community no longer with the enthusiasm of neophytes, but simply as a clear and long-familiar tool. EURMTL and EUROMUT are used for cashless payments. USDM mainly serves as an auxiliary token for currency exchanges (I, for example, withdraw dollars from a crypto exchange into USDM, and then exchange them for “mulki”). Some businesses fix debt obligations in their own tokens. The Blockchain Social Network still hasn’t acquired a convenient viewer and editor, so it remains deeply marginal. The Stellar wallets being developed by community members, Montelibero Wallet and especially Sunce, are gradually becoming more convenient. The MTL Fund has sharply reduced its public activity and is now effectively interesting only to its shareholders, and even then, not to all of them. The Montelibero Association has de facto become the mouthpiece for the project as a whole, so let’s discuss it in a bit more detail.
Of course, the fears of paranoiacs that the Association was created only to leak lists of members of an organized criminal community to “comrade major” have about as much relation to reality as that Montenegrin journalist’s ideas that Montelibero was dreamed up by Putin to destroy Montenegrin democracy. Everything is much more boring. The project activists simply rearranged the furniture in the room. I hope they’ve become more comfortable. The Association implies liquid democracy, a secretariat, and a small budget for its routine expenses. This internal kitchen has little effect on the lives of others (which is good), but draws some resources away (which is bad).
Fortunately, the Association activists also handle periodic contacts with the outside world, which is potentially the most useful part for fitting Montelibero into the global libertarian movement. Alas, I rarely have the strength to keep track of this. For instance, in recent months, there have been public calls and private negotiations with representatives of the Cosmos blockchain ecosystem (they have their own rich developments in DAO), with the MetaState project (creating a system of non-governmental electronic passports), with a project to lobby for a simplified visa and entrepreneurship regime for relocants to Albania, with volunteer fire organizations in Montenegro, the Free Private Cities fund, and certainly with others—it’s impossible to mention everyone.
The Association also includes corporate participants, among whom are the aforementioned MTL Fund and the First Club. Besides them, Green Zyland is more or less noticeable, a producer of modular houses for rent (they had a business back in the RF, and now they are expanding into three more countries). In November, they plan to hold a festival in Georgia; a few people from the Montenegrin Monteliberians will go, but I cannot afford it financially. Another active participant is the MTL Alert group. They are preparing for a zombie apocalypse; it’s a cool hobby, but for some reason, I find it hard to take seriously.
The Association is divided into factions, but only the panarchist faction is more or less publicly active. Two of its members, Stas and Ved, both run very sensible thematic channels.
The previously announced redirection of Montelibero’s efforts toward Argentina has not yet led to the formation of a Russian-speaking libertarian community there that is in contact with the rest of the project. The only news from those parts is that a delegate from Montelibero spoke at some Argentine libertarian conference and delivered a letter to Milei. What was in that letter and what effect it had, history remains silent about.
Conclusions and forecasts
At the start, Montelibero participants acted monstrously irrationally and made a ton of mistakes. How could this have been avoided? For example, by delaying the start of construction and other loud activity to instead more thoroughly scout the situation, and only then decide what to do and how. Was it realistic to act according to a more rational scenario? No. Montelibero is a movement, not an organization. It was precisely the drive of the pioneers and their enthusiastic mistake-making that attracted many new participants to the project. Without all this, a fairly strong libertarian community in Montenegro might simply not have formed, just as it didn’t form in Serbia, Georgia, Thailand, or even Argentina. So once again I state: centralized planning sucks, the market decides.
Nevertheless, many initiatives within Montelibero have successfully fizzled out, and many previously active project participants have, at best, tempered or completely lost interest in it, and at worst, moved into open opposition, considering the project to be meaningless “info-gypsyism.”
The economic part of the project must be mentioned separately. Here, the miscalculation proved fatal. It’s one thing when nine out of ten startups fail and one takes off. This happens thanks to fierce competition that selects the truly best. It’s a completely different matter when nine out of ten startups fail, and the tenth balances on the brink of breaking even. This happens thanks to a disgusting investment climate, under which one simply should not invest serious market capital here, just as one should not invest it in some Donbas. Even if something does take off, it will be not thanks to high utility for clients, but thanks to connections with the authorities, for example. And for libertarians, making money this way is usually considered “beneath them.”
Therefore, the following forecast can be made about Montelibero now. This project will not make Europe, or even just Montenegro, free. But it allowed those who believed in it to create a free society around themselves, and also became a platform for testing interesting ideas and technologies suitable for application in other places.
Читатели знают, что в последнее время я больше обычного интересуюсь таким феноменом, как война. Это неизбежно сместило и акцент моего восприятия недавнего громкого убийства в США. Что в нём странного?
То, что в США считают политических оппонентов легитимными военными целями? Это рутина. В США богатейшая традиция политических убийств, где целями выступали кто угодно, от низовых активистов до президентов. То, что мишенью стал человек, принципиально стремящийся к деэскалации конфликта? Это как раз и делает его приоритетной целью, поскольку ястребы обеих сторон конфликта выигрывают от его смерти, даже если и не причастны к ней. То, что он был убит единственным выстрелом в горло с двухсот метров? Ну, это средняя дистанция, и он представлял собой удобную неподвижную мишень. Нет. Самое удивительное во всей этой истории в том, что стрелок выбрал себе позицию на открытой крыше.
Понимаете, на дворе стоит 2025 год. Человек планирует совершить убийство во время охраняемого собрания и обустраивает свою стрелковую позицию так, что она прекрасно видна сверху. Это сопоставимо по тупости с атакой плотными колоннами пехоты в начале 20 века. Тогда колонна была бы уничтожена пулемётным огнём. Сейчас стрелка уничтожит или хотя бы выявит дрон. Рассчитывать, что у охраны многотысячного собрания не будет дрона – это примерно как рассчитывать, что у защитников полевых укреплений в начале 20 века не будет пулемёта.
В качестве средства наблюдения дрон может позволить себе примерно каждый. А в США всего год назад было покушение на кандидата в президенты, где стрелок точно так же занимал позицию на открытой крыше. И после этого службы охраны массовых собраний не внесли в свои протоколы безопасности хотя бы обязательный мониторинг с воздуха? Непугаными идиотами их назвать уже нельзя, потому что пуганые. Но вот необучаемыми – это будет, пожалуй, более чем уместно.
Думаю, тут есть какая-то симметрия мышления. Нам угрожает потенциальное нападение со стволом, значит, расставляем охрану со стволами. В таком случае дроны охраны мы увидим в воздухе на подобных ивентах не ранее, чем состоится первое покушение с дрона.